Really interesting article - thanks for assembling this info!
‘Draft value score’ - Is there a reasonably simple way to weight this (likely using same weighting as the preceding graph)? Drafting a seventh rounder in the fifth round may be a reach, but isn’t particularly important. But drafting a second rounder 1st overall would be a major loss.
Somewhat interestingly you could weight this in either direction - by pick position value or by providing an expected value of the players based on what their ranking value indicates. As I’m playing with the idea in my head I like the latter - as it could reflect the variance between a McKenna and a Schaefer or player tiers more broadly.
> Is there a reasonably simple way to weight this (likely using same weighting as the preceding graph)? Drafting a seventh rounder in the fifth round may be a reach, but isn’t particularly important. But drafting a second rounder 1st overall would be a major loss.
Its something I am working on for the next iteration, and I will see about backporting it to previous years when I am done. I might just use the "pick probability of success" weighting for it, but I haven't decided for certain yet. One thing on my mind when it comes to using something like that for weighting a metric is "pick effect", or how the pick used to select a player affects both the perceived value of that player and how the player selected affects the perceived value of a pick. Are later-round selections truly less-likely to pan out by virtue of when they were selected in the draft (therefore implying a pick is less-valuable), or are later-round selections less-likely to pan out because teams are more likely take huge fliers on comparatively-unknown players?
Really interesting article - thanks for assembling this info!
‘Draft value score’ - Is there a reasonably simple way to weight this (likely using same weighting as the preceding graph)? Drafting a seventh rounder in the fifth round may be a reach, but isn’t particularly important. But drafting a second rounder 1st overall would be a major loss.
Somewhat interestingly you could weight this in either direction - by pick position value or by providing an expected value of the players based on what their ranking value indicates. As I’m playing with the idea in my head I like the latter - as it could reflect the variance between a McKenna and a Schaefer or player tiers more broadly.
> Is there a reasonably simple way to weight this (likely using same weighting as the preceding graph)? Drafting a seventh rounder in the fifth round may be a reach, but isn’t particularly important. But drafting a second rounder 1st overall would be a major loss.
Its something I am working on for the next iteration, and I will see about backporting it to previous years when I am done. I might just use the "pick probability of success" weighting for it, but I haven't decided for certain yet. One thing on my mind when it comes to using something like that for weighting a metric is "pick effect", or how the pick used to select a player affects both the perceived value of that player and how the player selected affects the perceived value of a pick. Are later-round selections truly less-likely to pan out by virtue of when they were selected in the draft (therefore implying a pick is less-valuable), or are later-round selections less-likely to pan out because teams are more likely take huge fliers on comparatively-unknown players?